By Vonn Andrei E. Villamiel, Reporter
THE Philippines’ agricultural production shrank by 0.3% in the first quarter of the year, due to a decline in crop and fisheries output, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) said.
Data from the PSA showed the value of production in agriculture and fisheries at constant 2018 prices declined to P437.52 billion in the January to March period, from P438.65 billion in the same period last year.
This was a reversal of the 2.1% growth in farm output in the first quarter of 2025, and the 0.8% expansion in the fourth quarter.
This was also the first drop in output since the 1.9% contraction in the fourth quarter of 2024.
Declines in crops (-2.4%) and fisheries (-6.1%) outweighed gains in poultry (7.1%) and livestock (5.1%), dragging down the farm sector’s overall performance during the first quarter.
“The decline was driven by weaker crop and fisheries output, underscoring the sector’s vulnerability to weather disruptions and price volatility,” the Department of Agriculture (DA) said in a statement on Wednesday.
The agency attributed the weak performance to the drop in rice production, lingering impact of typhoon disruptions late last year, and softer farmgate prices, which discouraged farmers from expanding production.
At current prices, the value of production in agriculture and fisheries also fell by 2.4% year on year to P607.22 billion in the first quarter from P622.06 billion previously.
CROPS, FISHERIES
Crop output, which accounted for 55.7% of the total value of agricultural production, shrank by 2.4% year on year to P243.62 billion in the first quarter. This was a reversal from the 1% growth in the same period in 2025, but slightly better than the 2.6% contraction in the fourth quarter.
Palay (unmilled rice) production, which accounted for almost 20% of total farm output, contracted by 6.3%, a reversal from the 0.3% growth in the same quarter last year.
The PSA earlier reported that first-quarter palay production dropped by 6.26% to a six-year low of 4.4 million metric tons.
Corn production also went down by 5.5% in the first quarter, slightly worse than the 5.1% drop a year ago.
Declines in output were also recorded in banana (-2.7%) and sugarcane (-8%).
Meanwhile, coconut registered a 1.4% year-on-year increase in the first quarter, an improvement from a 0.3% contraction in 2025.
Double-digit production growth was seen in tobacco (41.6%), monggo (mung bean, 37.9%), ampalaya (bitter gourd, 19.1%), potato (12.4%), and cacao (11.7%).
Output growth was also recorded in onion (6.6%), rubber (5.9%), and tomato (5.5%).
Raul Q. Montemayor, national manager of the Federation of Free Farmers, told BusinessWorld that the decline in agricultural output can be attributed to lower rice output.
“The palay harvested in the first quarter of 2026 was planted in the last quarter of 2025, during which time palay prices were severely depressed. This discouraged many farmers from maintaining or expanding their production,” he said via Viber.
Mr. Montemayor said the production decline in major cash crops, such as corn, banana, and sugarcane, further dragged overall crop output.
Former Agriculture Secretary William D. Dar also told BusinessWorld via Viber that irrigation disruption late last year in major producing areas in Central Luzon also affected farm productivity.
Analysts earlier estimated that damage to a section of the Upper Pampanga River Integrated Irrigation Systems in Nueva Ecija affected about 30,000 to 40,000 hectares of farmland.
Meanwhile, fisheries output, which accounted for 12% of overall production, also contracted by 6.1% year on year to P52.34 billion in the first quarter. This was the biggest annual decline since the 6.7% contraction in the fourth quarter of 2022.
A drop in output was seen in major fishery commodities such as milkfish (-4.9%), tilapia (-2.4%), skipjack (gulyasan, -8.7%), and tiger prawn (sugpo, -2.8%).
Double-digit declines were also recorded in seaweed (-34%), mudcrab (alimango, -31.7%), big-eyed scad (matangbaka, -24.9%), blue crab (alimasag, -23.6%), yellowfin tuna (tambakol, 13.6%), and indian mackerel (alumahan, -12.9%).
Meanwhile, market staple galunggong (roundscad) increased by 48.6%. Output growth was also recorded in fimbriated sardines (tunsoy, 44.7%), bigeye tuna (tambakol, 16.7%), threadfin brim (bisugo, 12%), and grouper (lapulapu, 8.2%).
Mr. Dar said the decline in fisheries could be attributed to reduced catch due to overfishing.
Jayson H. Cainglet, executive director of the Samahang Industriya ng Agrikultura, said smallcale fishers, who make up the majority of the sector, are also facing increasing competition from commercial fishers.
“The fisheries sector continues to weaken following policy changes that allowed commercial vessels into the 15-kilometer municipal waters, undermining small fishers and accelerating resource pressure,” he told BusinessWorld via Viber.
In 2024, the Supreme Court upheld a 2023 Malabon Court ruling, which struck down key provisions of the Fisheries Code, including municipal fishers’ preferential access to the 15-kilometer municipal waters.
POULTRY, LIVESTOCK GAINS
Meanwhile, the poultry sector, which accounted for 18.5% of total farm output, jumped by an annual 7.1% in the first quarter to P80.83 billion. The sector’s output growth slowed from the 9.8% rise in the first quarter of 2025.
Chicken production, which accounts for 12.7% of total farm output, recorded an annual gain of 5.8% by value.
Output growth was also seen in chicken eggs (10.6%), duck eggs(3.5%), and duck (2.9%).
Agriculture Assistant Secretary for Swine and Poultry Michael J. Garcia said the growth in poultry is likely driven by new entrants in the market.
“There are a lot of investors in the poultry sector. There is still unserved demand for poultry, and including chicken egg, it remains the cheapest protein available,” he told reporters at a briefing on Wednesday.
Mr. Dar said the increase in output could also be attributed to a shorter production cycle, which makes it attractive for investors to expand their operations.
“There are now bigger companies involved in poultry, including those of small to medium farmers. With the shorter production cycle, the raisers are able to adapt and, if need be, increase their enterprises,” he said.
At the same time, livestock production grew by an annual 5.1% to P60.74 billion. The sector accounted for 13.9% of the total output.
Hog production, which accounted for 11.4% of the total farm output, rose by 6.4%, the sector’s fastest growth in almost 10 years.
Cattle and dairy production also inched up by 1.7% and 6.5%, respectively.
Meanwhile, carabao production slipped by 3.3%, while goat dropped by 5.8%.
Mr. Garcia said the surge in hog production was mainly due to base effects.
“It is good that there is growth in the sector, but it’s coming from a low base because we lost 5 million pigs due to the African Swine Fever (ASF),” he said.
He added that the sector’s recovery also reflects its increasing resilience to ASF.
“The big farms are now learning how to operate with ASF, even with limited vaccine availability. Smallholders, which account for 80% of the sector, are also starting to adapt,” Mr. Garcia said.
DECLINING INCOMES
Despite improvements in some subsectors, industry groups said the headline production figures mask worsening conditions at the farm level.
Mr. Cainglet said profitability continues to deteriorate amid rising input costs and sustained import volumes.
“Unprecedented import volumes and rising production costs are pushing Philippine agriculture toward contraction. As a result, many farmers are now considering skipping the next cropping cycle, threatening supply in the coming quarters,” he said.
Alfred Ng, vice chairman of the National Federation of Hog Raisers, said that despite the growth in the livestock sector, particularly in swine, producers still struggle with low farmgate prices.
“With the current price of P190 to P200 per kilo, farmers are at the breakeven point, if not earning a little,” he told BusinessWorld via Viber.
Mr. Ng also warned that any reductions in pork import tariffs could further dampen incentives for local producers to expand.
“We just hope that the current negotiations and lobbying by both local pork importers and European Union exporters for the lowering of pork import tariffs will not materialize,” he said.
He added that the DA should limit and control the volume of pork imports to further encourage local farmers to expand.
REBOUND SEEN IN Q2
Meanwhile, the DA said it expects farm output to recover in the second quarter, as rice production is expected to improve.
“We are seeing encouraging signs on the ground, with rice production likely recovering in the second quarter as planting conditions normalize, palay prices improve, and government interventions take effect,” Agriculture Secretary Francisco P. Tiu Laurel, Jr. said in the statement.
He added that the growth in the livestock and poultry sectors should help stabilize overall output and support the domestic food supply.
However, the DA said that rising production costs and weather risks could weigh on farm output in the second half of the year.
“While we expect a stronger second quarter, the impact of higher oil prices on transport and inputs, particularly fertilizer, as well as the potential effects of an El Niño-induced drought, could weigh on production in the second half,” Mr. Laurel said.
Mr. Laurel said the department is intensifying efforts to help the sector recover and manage emerging headwinds.
